www.geus.dk > Main areas of work > Water resources > Denmark > This page

REPORT FROM THE MERIT PROJECT

Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
GEUS logo - link to main page

Test of Bayesian belief network and stakeholder involvement


Introduction
The applicability of graphical models (Bayesian belief networks – BBNs) in water resource management regarding preventive groundwater protection was investigated in a case study for Havelse wellfield catchment in North Zealand. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) was the project leader and Copenhagen Energy (CE) the decision-maker and end-user in relation to the BBN case study.

CE is the largest water supply company in Denmark. It supplies roughly one million inhabitants in the greater Copenhagen area with drinking water each day. CE operates Havelse wellfield together with 55 other large wellfields located in northern and eastern Zealand (the island on which Copenhagen is located).

Three different types of actions have been analysed as means of protecting water resources: 1) voluntary farming contracts, 2) afforestation and 3) establishment of wetlands. For each problem a BBN have been constructed and evaluated with full stakeholder involvement of both a group of professional stakeholders and a citizens' group.

The possibilities and problems connected with voluntary five-ten-year farmer contracts prescribing no pesticide application in return for compensational payment was especially analysed. It was not a question of actually implementing such zones that was in focus in the study, only analysing what would be required in compensational payment if such zones were to be implemented at a magnitude and on a scale that allowed them to function as efficient groundwater protection. Furthermore, the aim was to clarify the impact implementation of such protection zones could have on land use, farm economics, groundwater quality, biodiversity and aquatic environment.

Information, consultation and active involvement of professional stakeholders and general public was carried out using announcements, facilitated public meeting, working group meetings, newsletters, a Web site, individual meetings and a joint working group. The facilitator of the public meeting and workshops was the Agenda 21 Centre in Frederikssund. Various subcontractors have participated in the project, e.g. Svend Rasmussen (KVL: farm economics) and Jesper Sølver Schou (NERI: value of biodiversity, land use, etc.).

Download the entire report merit-dk-2004.pdf (pdf-file, ~13mb)

CONTENTS (pdf-file, ~40kb)

ACRONYMS (pdf-file, ~10kb)

CHAPTER 0 Preamble (pdf-file, ~20kb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS
Car start problem with a time delay: Precautionary groundwater protection

CHAPTER 1 Summary (pdf-file, ~80kb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS
Introduction
Objectives for the Danish case study
Results of the Danish case study
Evaluation
Recommendations for guidelines

CHAPTER 2 Sammenfatning (pdf-file, ~30kb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS
Introduktion
Resultater af det danske MERIT case studie
Evaluering
Anbefalinger til vejledning i brug af BBNs

CHAPTER 3 Introduction (pdf-file, ~230kb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS, Per Rasmussen , GEUS, Gyrite Brandt , CE and Dorthe von Bülow , CE
Objectives
Terminology for public participation under the Water Framework Directive
BBN Terminology
Concept and approaches applied for the Danish case study
Existing practices at Copenhagen Energy
Introduction to BBN construction protocol
References

CHAPTER 4 Description of the wider water resources management in Denmark (pdf-file, ~280kb)
Lisbeth Flindt Jørgensen (GEUS) and Gyrite Brandt , CE
Danish drinking water production
The overall legal and administrative framework
Active groundwater protection in Denmark
After the implementation of the Water Framework Directive
Stakeholder involvement
References

CHAPTER 5 Stakeholder involvement (pdf-file, ~200kb)
Per Rasmussen , GEUS
Identification of stakeholders
Stakeholder involvement process
Annex 1. Stakeholder questionnaire and input: Distribution of tasks among stakeholders: roles in the context of groundwater protection.
Annex 2. Stakeholder questionnaire and input: What would be the consequences of different groundwater protection measures?
Discussion

CHAPTER 6 Development of Bayesian belief networks (pdf-file, ~3mb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS
Background
What is a BBN?
An example of a BBN for farming contracts
Methodology of BBN development
BBN for groundwater protection
A BBN for flooding
Validation of BBNs
References

CHAPTER 7 Data collection for groundwater protection management (pdf-file, ~8mb)
Per Nyegaard , GEUS
Basic hydrogeological data
Land use data and restrictions
References

CHAPTER 8 Main conclusions and perspectives in relation to WFD (pdf-file, ~100kb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS, Per Rasmussen , GEUS, Gyrite Brandt , CE and Dorthe von Bülow , CE
Stakeholder engagement
Use of BBN
Problems to look out for
Future research needs
MERIT concept compared to traditional approaches
Main ongoing CE activities related to the Water Framework Directive
References

CHAPTER 9 Comments from the Havelse Creek Citizens' Group on draft GEUS report entitled 'Test of Bayesian belief network and stakeholder involvement' (pdf-file, ~60kb)
Hans Jørgen Henriksen , GEUS
Re Chapter 0: Preamble
Re Chapters 1 and 2
Re Chapter 3: Introduction
Re Chapter 4: Description of the wider water resources management in Denmark
Re Chapter 5: Stakeholder involvement
Re Chapter 6: Development of Bayesian belief networks
Re Chapter 7: Data collection for groundwater protection management
Re Chapter 8: Main conclusions and perspectives in relation to WFD
Re Appendix 1: Economic loss on conversion to pesticide-free crop cultivation in the Havelse abstraction area
Re Appendix 2: Economic analysis of abstraction strategies for groundwater in the Havelse Creek catchment area1
Re Appendix 3: When citizens are to be involved: From water in the basement to Bayesian networks
Re Appendix 4: Contribution from the Havelse wellfield citizens' group
References

Appendix 1 (pdf-file, ~130kb)
Driftsøkonomiske tab ved pesticidfri dyrkning af landbrugsarealer ved Havelse kildeplads.
Svend Rasmussen , KVL (in Danish)

Appendix 2 (pdf-file, ~250kb)
Samfundsøkonomisk analyse af indvindingsstrategier for grundvand i oplandet til Havelse å.
Jesper S. Schou , DMU (in Danish)

Appendix 3 (pdf-file, ~40kb)
Involving citizens: From water in the basement to Bayesian networks.
Jan Poulsen , Agenda 21 Center, Frederikssund

Appendix 4 (pdf-file, ~20kb)
MERIT workshop 3 March 2004. Comments from the Havelse wellfield citizens' group.


[Top]   Last modified: 13. august 2004 © Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland - GEUS
Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K - Tel.: +45 38142000 - Fax: +45 38142050 - E-mail: geus@geus.dk
This page is maintained by: Webmaster


*