The applicability of graphical models (Bayesian belief networks – BBNs) in water resource management regarding preventive groundwater protection was investigated in a case study for Havelse wellfield catchment in North Zealand. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) was the project leader and Copenhagen Energy (CE) the decision-maker and end-user in relation to the BBN case study.
CE is the largest water supply company in Denmark. It supplies roughly one million inhabitants in the greater Copenhagen area with drinking water each day. CE operates Havelse wellfield together with 55 other large wellfields located in northern and eastern Zealand (the island on which Copenhagen is located).
Three different types of actions have been analysed as means of protecting water resources: 1) voluntary farming contracts, 2) afforestation and 3) establishment of wetlands. For each problem a BBN have been constructed and evaluated with full stakeholder involvement of both a group of professional stakeholders and a citizens' group.
The possibilities and problems connected with voluntary five-ten-year farmer contracts prescribing no pesticide application in return for compensational payment was especially analysed. It was not a question of actually implementing such zones that was in focus in the study, only analysing what would be required in compensational payment if such zones were to be implemented at a magnitude and on a scale that allowed them to function as efficient groundwater protection. Furthermore, the aim was to clarify the impact implementation of such protection zones could have on land use, farm economics, groundwater quality, biodiversity and aquatic environment.
Information, consultation and active involvement of professional stakeholders and general public was carried out using announcements, facilitated public meeting, working group meetings, newsletters, a Web site, individual meetings and a joint working group. The facilitator of the public meeting and workshops was the Agenda 21 Centre in Frederikssund. Various subcontractors have participated in the project, e.g. Svend Rasmussen (KVL: farm economics) and Jesper Sølver Schou (NERI: value of biodiversity, land use, etc.).
Download the entire report merit-dk-2004.pdf (pdf-file, ~13mb)
CONTENTS (pdf-file, ~40kb)
ACRONYMS (pdf-file, ~10kb)
CHAPTER 0 Preamble
CHAPTER 1 Summary
CHAPTER 2 Sammenfatning
CHAPTER 3 Introduction
CHAPTER 4 Description of the wider water resources management in Denmark
CHAPTER 5 Stakeholder involvement
CHAPTER 6 Development of Bayesian belief networks
CHAPTER 7 Data collection for groundwater protection management
CHAPTER 8 Main conclusions and perspectives in relation to WFD
CHAPTER 9 Comments from the Havelse Creek Citizens' Group on draft GEUS report entitled 'Test of Bayesian belief network and stakeholder involvement'