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CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF CLIMATE GENERATED GROUNDWATER FLOODING OF POLLUTED SITES IN THE COASTAL ZONE (KIMONO)

Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
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How do climate change and polluted sites impact the groundwater, bathing water and water quality and sustainability of Horsens Fiord?

Vinterlandskab nord for Horsens fjord (januar 2010)
Vinterlandskab nord for Horsens fjord (januar 2010)

By Hans Jørgen Henriksen, GEUS hjh@geus.dk

The final report

How leaching from polluted sites impacts the contamination of groundwater and Horsens Fiord in a future climate, is the main objective of the KIMONO project.
KIMONO - Concept for integrated assessment and risk management of polluted sites in the coastal zone due to climate change effects is a research project financed by Danish EPA funded by the environmental technology program.
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS, Region Midt, Horsens municipality and VIA-UC Horsens focus on Horsens Fiord and Horsens City as a case study in order to clarify these issues. With participation of important stakeholders the goal is to analyse how polluted sites like the Collstrup site, the gasworks site and the dump site in Horsens most likely will impact the groundwater quality, bathing water quality in the harbour and the sustainability of the Horsens fiord ecological system now and in a future climate.
The KIMONO concept include monitoring of groundwater quality in urban areas, groundwater level monitoring and modelling of the hydrological cycle with downscaled inputs from global and regional climate models to hydrological models for Horsens Fiord and City.
Two model workshops will be arranged (the first was held in September 2011), and a final one will be arranged in March 2011 with the purpose of sharpening the stakeholders and experts understanding and framing of the problems, in order to evaluate the impacts of climate change on groundwater and fiord contaminations from polluted sites and identify possible solutions to the threads.

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Methodology for assessment of the sustainability of groundwater, bathing water and fjord ecology in relation climate change generated groundwater flooding and contamination from polluted sites

KIMONO allows for an adaptive management of point sources in the coastal zone, threatened by climate change effects on hydrology and groundwater. Assessment of flooding risks originating from groundwater, rivers and lakes and the seas in a future climate can't be solely based on historical data, but will require model-based projections of climate change effects and their consequences for the hydrology of the Horsens Fiord catchment and local effects on contaminants from polluted sites in the Horsens city area.

Downscaling from global and regional climate models to hydrological models for Horsens Fiord and City hydrological models
Downscaling from global and regional climate models to hydrological models for Horsens Fiord and City hydrological models
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Hereby, maps of vulnerability of flooding of point sources can be produced for present and future climate. This could be used for risk assessment and ranking of various polluted sites related to groundwater quality, impacts on bathing water quality and Horsens Fiord water quality and ecosystem sustainability.

Mapping of polluted sites in Horsens City and delineation of flooding risk from increased sea level of 2.5 meter
Mapping of polluted sites in Horsens City and delineation of flooding risk from increased sea level of 2.5 meter.
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Assessment of main challenges by Horsens municipality of future climate change threats
Assessment of main challenges by Horsens municipality of future climate change threats.
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First, the input from global and regional climate models are downscaled to a hydrological model of Horsens Fiord catchment. This model is a detailed version of the National Water Resource Model (DK model), with boundary conditions from the DK model, grid size of 250 m and a detailed vertical discretization, river networks etc.

Horsens Fiord catchment and river gauging stations having daily runoff data for calibration of the model
Horsens Fiord catchment and river gauging stations having daily runoff data for calibration of the model.
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View of Horsens City (of today) a town which by the end of the 1900 century developed as the most important industrial towns in Jutland. On the map borings drilled as part of the CLIWAT project are shown (www.cliwat.eu)
View of Horsens City (of today) a town which by the end of the 1900 century developed as the most important industrial towns in Jutland. On the map borings drilled as part of the CLIWAT project are shown ( www.cliwat.eu)
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Moreover, the model results of changes in groundwater flow paths due to climate change will be valuable for engagement of stakeholders in the risk assessment for infrastructure, environment, drinking water and Fiord. There will be significant environmental benefits of such a tool for proactive integrated assessment and monitoring, which can be used with active stakeholder involvement. Partly as a result of the effects of climate change in the coastal zone is hereby communicated and visualized risks to be prepared for, made transparent for the public and the many stakeholders in the coastal zone. This enable the implementation of a learning process that can contribute to assessing the need for risk management and further monitoring, as a result of the discussions at model workshops.

Basically, adaptation is a balancing of top-down and bottom-up approaches. In KIMONO downscaled climate effects will be identified by the regional and the local models of the Horsens city hotspots. Simulations thus can show the expected changes as a result of climate change and sea level rise but also other scenarios can be incorporated (e.g. changed water abstraction and effects of groundwater lowering as part of construction work in the City). Maps of changed groundwater levels, flooding risks, spreading of solutes from polluted sites can then be drafted and discussed with stakeholders in workshop settings hereby enabling bottom up identification and communication of stakeholder perceptions on problems and ideas for possible solutions.
Basically, adaptation is a balancing of top-down and bottom-up approaches. In KIMONO downscaled climate effects will be identified by the regional and the local models of the Horsens city hotspots. Simulations thus can show the expected changes as a result of climate change and sea level rise but also other scenarios can be incorporated (e.g. changed water abstraction and effects of groundwater lowering as part of construction work in the City). Maps of changed groundwater levels, flooding risks, spreading of solutes from polluted sites can then be drafted and discussed with stakeholders in workshop settings hereby enabling bottom up identification and communication of stakeholder perceptions on problems and ideas for possible solutions.
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This can lead to better public awareness and stimulate public engagement and mobilize the total adaptive capacity of the governance system (Regions, Municipality, State authorities and researchers/GEUS). Also a foundation and catalogue of all possible adaptation and remediation options can be established according to the need for climate proofing and risk management in relation to polluted sites in the City area, and risk management in relation to polluted sites can be developed and tested and disseminated for implementation in other areas with similar challenges (City's in East Jutland located at river mouths and Fiords).

The polluted Collstrup site forms a significant point contaminant source with its location near Horsens Fiord. As part of KIMONO Region Midt have established several new boreholes located in the pollution plume in groundwater, leaching toward the habour and fiord through the old wodden shit pilling along Søndre Kaj
The polluted Collstrup site forms a significant point contaminant source with its location near Horsens Fiord. As part of KIMONO Region Midt have established several new boreholes located in the pollution plume in groundwater, leaching toward the habour and fiord through the old wodden shit pilling along Søndre Kaj.
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The old gasworks is another important polluted site also located near Horsens Fiord. Here again Region Midt has drilled new monitoring wells in order to better quantify the current contaminant load of Horsens Fiord, and to assess future threats related to contaminants and climate change effects on groundwater level, flow and fate of contaminants
The old gasworks is another important polluted site also located near Horsens Fiord. Here again Region Midt has drilled new monitoring wells in order to better quantify the current contaminant load of Horsens Fiord, and to assess future threats related to contaminants and climate change effects on groundwater level, flow and fate of contaminants.
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KIMONO thereby enables a novel generation adaptive management approaches which can stimulate the focus on risks from polluted sites in a warmer climate, triggering an open cooperation and polycentric governance between state, region, municipalities, stakeholders, citizens and researchers that resulting in better integrated policy making and decision making under uncertainty on such complex issues.

Workshop 1 held at VIA UC 27 September 2011

The first workshop in KIMONO project was held 27th September 2011 at VIA UC in Horsens. The workshop was entitled "Climate change and polluted sites" and was opened with two invited presentations by Inger Birkebæk Madsen, Kolding, and Ole Helgren, Aarhus municipality, who talked about how to tackle climate change in Kolding and Aarhus Cities, also located at the eastern mouths of fjords, and thus having similar climate change challenges as the City of Horsens.

The session before lunch was completed with contributions from KIMONO project partners: with a presentation of the challenges as viewed by Horsens municipality (Keld Rasmussen, Horsens municipality), a presentation on monitering and mapping of spreading of pollution from polluted sites by Rolf Johnsen (Region Midt), a presentation for the Collstrup site by Morten Steen (Region Midt) and finally a presentation of the Gasworks polluted site by Helle Blæsbjer (Region Midt).

After lunch the focus was on modeling. First, the detailed near-surface geological model for the city of Horsens was presented, innovative in its interpretation of the complex geological conditions in the city of Horsens with different backfill layer, trenches, etc. The geological model was established with the assistance of Thomas Krom, Touchwater, using a new tool for the interpreation tailored to the task. This geology was interpreted in a 5 meter grid for Horsens city. From this detailed scale, the geological model has been aggregated to the local numerical groundwater and surface water model using a 50 meter grid. Torben Sonnenborg presented the setup and calibration of the regional model for Horsens Fjord, and the first results of the local model of the Horsens city.

The workshop was completed with a discussion of problems and threats associated with flooding and contaminant dispersal from point sources. There was a discussion about what the problem is and how it should be framed (contaminants, tolerable limit values, risks etc.) for groundwater, soil contact and bathing water quality and the Horsens Fjord ecosystems. Furthermore, requirements for model simulations were discussed.

The discussions revealed some areas where further work on the KIMONO concept was necessary.
This included:

  • A need to reevaluate model setup, especially how drainage in the city is introduced in the model
  • An identification of a lack of overall strategy regarding drainage and point/non-point pollutions from urban areas
  • A need for better data on groundwater levels in urban areas
  • A quantification of loads from Collstrup and other polluted sites to groundwater and fiord
  • An assessment of impacts on surface water. Can the water become so clean in the port area so that people can jump in and swim?
  • Focus on leaching from polluted sites and loads on fiord. There seems to be a gap in institutions, nobody takes care of this problem
  • What is the amount of diffuse drainage and loads from the whole city area? It's a real cocktail of pollutants
  • In relation to the Gasworks site. A storm water drain runs adjacent to this site, but what is the amount of pollution here, is it clean? Intelligent coastal protection is needed. Reactive wall?
  • With climate change there may be a mobilization of point sources where there is no pollution today. If the groundwater is in 2 meters depth, but increases up 0.5 m below the surface, we might have to revisit the already finished mapping of polluted sites
  • How to scale further down to a meaningful scale in relation to the problems?
  • There is a need to think more about what the future will look like in terms of infrastructure, how is the future drainage system, how will you handle the water (exploratory and backcasting scenarios).
Documents and presentations Workshop 1:
1_WS1_program_deltagere_27_Sep.pdf (pdf-file ~100kb)
2_WS1_Kolding_CaseNo07-1PP_27_sept_2011Workshop_Horsens1.pdf (pdf-file ~3,9mb)
3_WS1_Aarhus_CLIWAT_Horsens2011.pdf (pdf-file ~4,9mb)
4_WS1_Klimaudfordringer_Horsens_Kommune27_09_11.pdf (pdf-file ~700kb)
5_WS1_Collstropgrunden_workshop_27012011.pdf (pdf-file ~600kb)
6_WS1_Gasvaerksgrunden.pdf (pdf-file ~1300kb)
7_WS1_Geologi.pdf (pdf-file ~400kb)
8_WS1_KIMONO-workshop_27_09_2011_TSO_v2.pdf (pdf-file ~5mb)
9_WS1_referat_HJH.pdf (pdf-file ~500kb)

Workshop 2 held at VIA UC 27 March 2012 in Horsens

Download program and participant list (pdf-file ~200kb)

Welcome, objectives and plan / expectations for modelworkshop 2, Keld Rasmussen, Horsens municipality

Morning 10-12 What have KIMONO delivered and what have we have learned along the way?

  • Modelling climate change effects and hydrological impacts on Horsens city. Torben Sonnenborg, GEUS
    Download pdf (~ 6,5 mb)
  • Monitoring / risk assessment. Morten Steen, Region Midt
    Download pdf (~ 3,8 mb)
  • Discharges from stormwater, sewage etc. to Horsens fiord. Ove Steen Nielsen, Horsens water
    Download pdf (~ 2,2 mb)
Afternoon 13-14 Goals and challenges. Bathing water quality or ecosystem sustainability? We shall inform presenters about our results so that they can relate to the knowledge generated in KIMONO.
  • Future habour masterplan and planning for adaptation. By Vibeke Holdt, Horsens Municipality
    Download pdf (~ 4,0 mb)
  • Horsens Fjord, sustainability of natural and ecological conditions in relation to stress. Jacob Strand, Aarhus University
    Download pdf (~ 1,6 mb)
Afternoon 14-16 How can the project contribute? How can authorities use results: Municipality, Region, State, Advisors, Horsens water? Debate and break-out groups followed by plenary.


Objectives of the KIMONO project

Specifically, there are 5 objective of the project, developed and tested for Horsens Fiord catchment and local Horsens city hotspot:
  • The development, exploration and testing of the a concept for modeling of groundwater and surface water, particle paths and solute transport in the case study area (MIKE SHE / MIKE 11 with boundary conditions from the DK model and input from downscaled DMI global and regional climate model inputs)
  • Development and testing of concept for monitoring of polluted sites in downstream groundwater in the urban area
  • Delineation of local areas on a small scale which are under threat of flooding from climate change effects on groundwater, runoff from the catchment, increased sea level
  • Model Workshops with active involvement of stakeholders for the assessment of risks related to contaminated sites
  • Dissemination of project results and diffusion of KIMONO concept to other coastal areas for implementation of the tool developed for integrated assessment and risk management targeting consulting engineers, regions and municipalities.
Documents
19_baggrund_Proj_Beskrivelse_Kimono_oplysningsskema_geus.pdf
(pdf-file ~1200kb)
20_baggrund_Revideret_tidsplan KIMONO_23Jan2012.pdf (pdf-file ~100kb)


Final project reporting

Model simulated increase in groundwater level in Horsens city in meter due to an increase in future sea level of 0.5 meter and future climate change impacts on groundwater level for the A2 scenario.
Model simulated increase in groundwater level in Horsens city in meter due to an increase in future sea level of 0.5 meter and future climate change impacts on groundwater level for the A2 scenario.
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Download final report from KIMONO project (in Danish 8.5 MB/pdf file): www.naturstyrelsen.dk/Udgivelser/Aarstal/2013/KIMONO.htm


More information

Contact project leader Hans Jørgen Henriksen, GEUS.
Tlf. +4538142771, email: hjh@geus.dk


Useful links:


File-list:

10_D1_Interception_WP1.pdf (pdf-file ~600kb)
11_D2_Nedskalering_klima_WP2.pdf (pdf-file ~100kb)
12_D4_Geologisk_model_WP4.pdf (pdf-file ~3,2mb)
13_D6_interessent_involveringsplan.pdf (pdf-file ~200kb)
14_D6_BILAG1a_Overvaagning_af_kystvande_1998.pdf (pdf-file ~7,5mb)
15_D6_Bilag1b_Kystvande2004_indikatorrapport.pdf (pdf-file ~1900kb)
16_D6_BILAG1c_Svar_Miljostyrelsen_collstrop.pdf (pdf-file ~50kb)
17_D6_BILAG1d_Masterplan_Horsens_Havn_DOK1365173.pdf (pdf-file ~8,8mb)
18_D6_Steen_Swaerter_juni2011_kvalitetskrav.pdf (pdf-file ~200kb)

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