Report:Scientific eval. of program. area 5 Nature and Environmen

1. Introduction/Summary

A geological survey as GEUS has to operate in a space dominated by political, economical
and scientific needs, wishes and requirements. In this report we, the evaluation panel,
primarily focus on matters directly related to scientific issues. We are, however, fully aware
that the overall management of GEUS need to be seen in a wider context.

GEUS has a long tradition of both applied and strategic research and occupies a prominent
position in the Danish geoscience community. The evaluation panel is pleased tOFind that
GEUS aims at strengthening its research activities to become internationally leading in
selected research disciplines. We believe that such a strategy, especially when seen over a
long time range, will not only strengthen the research efforts, but also strongly benefit
consultancy tasks and thus the Danish and Greenlandic societies in general.

High priority at GEUS to research activities is reflected in the task of the present evaluation
panel where emphasis is placed on identifying research areas of high quality and research
areas that should be strengthened. The programme area 5 "Nature and Environment" has
contributed significantly to the status of GEUS as an important research institution. With
the increasing public concern over climate change, retreating glaciers, changing frequency
of geohazards, and other environmental issues, research within programme area 5 is highly
relevant to the society. Baseline studies such as those carried out by GEUS are highly
relevant to decision makers when evaluating the effects of future environmental changes.

In this review we have identified areas of particular strength within the programme area.
We have also attempted to identify critical issues that in our point of view may restrict a
dynamic development of the programme area.

2. Mandate, background and formalities

In accordance with the performance contract the Geological Survey of Denmark and
Greenland (GEUS) decided in May 2005 to arrange an international evaluation of research
activities within Programme area 5 `Nature and Environment' for the years from 2000 to
2005. This was done in order to help GEUS maintaining and improving scientific standard
and performance within the area, and, where relevant, adjust research strategies.

According to the working plan for 2005 programme area 5 "Nature and Environment"
comprises three research themes:

Marine geology

Vegetation and environmental history

Geological mapping, glacial processes and glaciology

A panel of international experts, not involved in activities within the Programme area under
review, should be appointed and given the task of implementing the evaluation. In addition,
staff members from GEUS should be appointed rapporteurs to the expert panel, to provide
facts about GEUS, its internal organisation and conditions in the Programme area under
review.

The individual members of the evaluation panel were approached early June 2005 and was
asked to provide a short statement on their professional relations with GEUS. The
Evaluation Panel (Appendix 1) consisting of Professor Björn E. Berglund, Dr. Cees Laban,
Professor Ole Humlum and Professor Else Marie Friis was formally appointed in a
following letter from GEUS, and dates for the first visit settled. In addition, written material
detailing the research activities within the individual working groups was distributed to the
panel members.

The mandate and objectives of the evaluation panel was defined in a letter of November 2,
2005, stating that the panel shall undertake an evaluation of research activities within the
programme area `Nature and Environment', constituted by

Research and development activities within the areas of palaeoclimate,
palaeoecology, marine geology and glaciology, with respect to the Quaternary in
Denmark and Greenland.

Research and development activities with respect to the environment and climate
change in Denmark and the northern hemisphere; and geological mapping in
Denmark.

The evaluation panel was asked to pay special attention to:

Identifying areas of high quality research.

Identifying areas, where the research of GEUS should be strengthened in order to
meet GEUS vision and strategies.

Identifying areas which should be strengthened in order for GEUS to expand its
ability to provide assistance to third world countries within the broad area of nature
and environment.

Providing comments and proposals as to strategic changes, amendments, and
improvements to GEUS' work within the programme area, in order to improve
GEUS' ability tOFulfil its main mission within the programme area when seen in
perspective of statutes and general mission of the survey.

The panel was asked to base its evaluation on:

Publications from programme area 5 spanning the time interval 2000-2005

One main visit November 2005 at GEUS in Copenhagen, interviewing scientists,
and visiting laboratories and work-facilities at the GEUS premises.

A supplementary second visit in February 2006 aimed also to present the initial

findings of the panel.

During the visits at GEUS the evaluation panel members should meet the relevant scientific
staff. Brief general terms of reference for the evaluations were set up by GEUS (Appendix
2). The evaluation, resulting in a written report to the Direction of GEUS, should be based
on the documentation submitted by GEUS as well as presentations, interviews and
discussions undertaken in connection with two site visits at the institution.

The Evaluation Panel participated in two

meeting sessions at GEUS on November 22-23,

2005 (Appendix 8) and February 23-24, 2006 (Appendix 9), respectively. Documentation
from the GEUS and Programme area 5 was distributed to the group in early November
2005.

3. Evaluation panel meetings and background for the present report

At the first panel meeting, November 23-24, 2005, general information on GEUS, its
staffing, infrastructure and financing was given in an oral presentation by Assistant Director
of GEUS, Dr Johnny Fredericia. This was followed by more specific presentations by the
Programme Area 5 manager, Peter Gravesen, and project leaders within the Programme
area, Drs J.B. Jensen, A. Kuijpers, K.E.S. Klint and R. Bradshaw. All information was
adequately documented by bibliographic and financial data. In addition the panel had
separate meetings with members of the different working groups within programme area 5.

Scientific contributions (publications, reports and maps) produced by the working groups
over the period 2000-2005 were made available during the meeting, where panel members
could select relevant copies to be posted for more in depth study. All panel members
exploited this opportunity, and the material was received by mail on December 8

, 2005.

Further, supplementary evaluation material requested by the panel at the November meeting
was received by the members on December 22

, 2005. This material included:

An updated list of peer reviewed papers with number of citations (International
Science Citation).

A list of scientific staff formerly employed within programme area 5, contributing
to papers published during the evaluation period.

A list of journals with the number of papers published by staff from programme area
5.

The budget for GEUS.

An overview of relationships between research and advising activities within
programme area 5.

In February 2006 the review panel held a second meeting at GEUS, as its report took final
shape. This meeting assured that issues of fact were clarified, and that the overall tenor of
the report was made known to the staff of Programme Area 5 at GEUS.

Professor Finn Surlyk, University of Copenhagen, was appointed by the Danish Science
Research Council to assist the panel by liaison to GEUS, and to provide the panel members
with facts about the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.

We compliment the staff of GEUS on the presentations and express our thanks for the
logistic and other support afforded the panel during its visits.

4. Purpose and strategic aims of GEUS, with special reference to
Programme area 5

The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS, is a research and advisory
institute in the Danish Ministry of Environment. The survey also operates in the private
sector. GEUS is partner in Geocenter Copenhagen, together with the Geological and
Geographical institutes, and the Geological Museum, University of Copenhagen.

GEUS' overall mission is to provide, to use, and to disseminate knowledge of geological
materials, processes and relations that is important for the use and protection of geological
resources in Denmark and Greenland. Part of this mission is to support administrative and
legislative work in Danish Ministries and the Greenland Home Rule Authority, by
providing state-of-the-art geoscientific knowledge of international standard.

GEUS' main tasks are geological mapping, data collection and storage, research, advising,
and dissemination of geoscientific knowledge.

The daily activities of GEUS are organised within five programme areas:

1. Data banks, information technology, and information to the general public
2. Water resources
3. Energy resources
4. Mineral resources and Greenland mapping
5. Nature and environment, object for the present evaluation report.

The major end users of GEUS research results and services are:

The Danish Ministry of Environment

Other Danish ministries

Greenland Home Rule

Danish Governmental agencies

Regional and local authorities in Denmark

The scientific society

Private companies and organisations

In 2001, GEUS drew up the vision of the institution for the coming decade: Geology for a
changing society (Appendix 3). The document which is set up in collaboration between
employees, management and the board of directors outlines the identity GEUS is aiming for
in 2012.

Among strategic aims and objectives listed in this vision are stated (taken from the GEUS
homepage) that

GEUS is to be an internationally recognised and in selected areas a leading research
and consultancy institution in the fields of environmental geology, water resources,
energy and mineral resources. GEUS is to be the primary consultancy institution for
Danish and Greenland authorities in all questions concerning important geological
conditions. GEUS is to be the Danish national geological data centre, on the
forefront internationally, which presents reliable and independent information to
benefit the public and industry.

For programme area 5 `Nature and Environment' the overall objective of the research and
consulting activities is to provide a better understanding of natural processes and
ecosystems. This objective is chosen in order to create a baseline for the study of natural
and human impacts on environment and climate and for the monitoring and management of
nature and environment.

Research output from Programme area 5 is considered especially important for the efficient
operation of the following four official Danish-Greenlandic authorities:

Danish Forest and Nature Agency

Danish Environment Protection Agency

Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, Greenland

Directorate of Environment and Nature, Greenland

5. Research activities 2000-2005 within Programme area 5: some general
considerations

The overall scientific questions addressed by programme area 5 at GEUS concern processes
in time and space leading to the current climate and environmental conditions in Denmark
in particular and in the North Atlantic region in general. One of the overall research
questions has been to improve the ability of distinguishing between natural and man-made

environmental changes. In addition, also mapping of both onshore and offshore geological
units and sediments has been a major research focus for the programme area.

The detailed research foci have changed somewhat during the evaluation period. From 2000
to 2003 research was focused on four main issues:

Development of the cultural landscape and the human impact

The coastal zone: Sediment dynamics and mapping

Mapping of the Quaternary surface deposits on land

Climate changes in the North Atlantic

From 2004 to 2007 the research activities within the programme shifted. The previous
explicit focus on the cultural landscape and human impact was given lower priority and the
research incorporated in three new main research areas:

The coastal zone and marine geology

Climate change and effects

Geological mapping and landscape studies

In addition to changes in the number of formal research areas over the evaluation period,
several different headings for research themes and research groups were used during the
presentation and in the official material provided by GEUS. This gave the panel an
impression of uncertainty in visions and aims and could perhaps reflect that the new
strategic plan is not yet fully adopted in daily life. Thus in the original letter from GEUS to
the panel, four research themes were included in programme area 5: Marine Geology;
Vegetation and environment history; Geological mapping and glacial processes;
Glaciology. In addition, some researchers have contributed to more than one research
theme, both before and after 2004, which also may influence the result of publication
statistics discussed below.

In our evaluation we have chosen to refer to the following three working groups ,
corresponding to the three groups of scientists introduced to the panel in November 2005:

Land geology and ice

Marine geology

Palaeovegetation and forests

We recognize that these working groups do not represent individual units in a strict
functional sense , and is used in this report only as a handy reference term for the three
groups of scientists interviewed by the evaluation panel. The working groups apparently
have a very open structure, with nOFormal leaders, characterised by a general atmosphere
of mutual respect and loyalty, combined with personal commitment.

The evaluation panel have noted that all working groups have been involved in several EU
projects during the evaluation period.

The total publication statistics for all three working groups are presented in Appendix 7,
while the statistics referring to the individual groups are presented below in chapter 6.
Some scientists have contributed to more than one of the working groups under evaluation,
and it may therefore be discussed under which working group correctly to record some
publications.

According to the development plan 2004-2007 (GEUS' Strategier: Grundlag for
Resultatkontrakt 2004-2007, GEUS 2003) the programme area must expect a reduction in
base funding from GEUS within the planning period. It is, however, also stated in the
development plan (p. 27) that it is important that the programme area remains above the
`critical' mass with respect to manpower and expertise. The funding necessary to ensure
this is foreseen to come from various sources.

Land geology and ice

Geological maps of Denmark represent a key resource for planning the use of natural
resources, such as sand and gravel, or major landscape changes in connection with
construction work. Geological maps alsOForm the basis for planning use and protection of
natural groundwater resources, agricultural planning, forest planning, use of wet-areas, and
exploitation of other natural resources. The mapping activities comprise both "traditional"
as well as applied programmes.

Within the evaluation period 2000-2005, the working group has focused on the following
main activities:

Regional and local geological mapping of Denmark.

Production of geomorphological maps (scale 1:50,000) of Denmark.

Applied various geophysical methods (e.g. ground penetrating radar and geo-
electrical investigations) for high resolution mapping of natural resources.

Mapping of glaciotectonic structures, partly as applied research in order to gain
insight in glacial dynamics and understanding the spatial distribution of a number
of natural resources (e.g. diatomite and bentonite).

Thematic mapping of for instance till fractures in order to obtain relevant input data
for hydraulic models, for evaluating stability of slopes and for planning remediation
of contaminated sites, and resource mapping.

Glaciological work in Greenland, with special emphasis on understanding the
relation between current climatic variations, mass balance and dynamic frontal
response of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Carrying out a number of additional activities, such as, e.g. publication, selection of
Danish geo-sites and participating in EU projects.

This working group has experienced a number of staff reductions during the evaluation
period, affecting coastal geomorphology, Quaternary geology and glaciology.

Marine geology

Marine geological investigations are carried out by GEUS in the nearshore zone of the
North Sea, in the inner Danish waters of the Baltic Sea, in the North Atlantic Ocean, West
Greenland, the Arctic Ocean and in the Caribbean. The importance of marine investigations
is increasing because of the growing population in the coastal zone, the increasing use of
raw materials, coastal erosion problems, beach nourishment, and the preservation of
landscapes onshore.

North Sea and the Baltic: The infrastructure is growing. Besides shipping routes, the
infrastructure increases by oil and gas platforms, the presence of submarine gas and oil
pipelines, submarine cables (telephone, electricity), plans for offshore windmill parks,
licence area's for the extraction of marine sand and gravel, and fishery grounds. All these
activities make use of the seabed, and for strategic planning of seabed use information of
seabed conditions, seabed behaviour and processes are essential for decision makers.

Marine sands and gravels are essential products for the development and maintenance of
the built and natural environments. Society benefits greatly from the exploitation and use of
marine sands and gravels mainly through construction and coastal defence as a source
material for beach replenishment and protection, and in habitat creation/restoration
schemes.

The expected sea level rise within the coming decades will threaten low lying coasts with
coastal defence problems. Beach nourishment is one of the tools to maintain the coastline,
but requires enormous amounts of marine sand.

The exploitation of these resources must, however, be achieved in an environmentally
sustainable manner and co-operate with other legitimate uses of the seabed such as marine
habitats, fishing and navigation. Extraction of marine sand and gravel has a recognised
effect on the seabed and its fauna; for example, it can take several years before dredging
tracks disappear and total recovery of the habitat is reached after dredging activities.

North Atlantic and Greenlandic waters: the role of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation
patterns is highly important for understanding regional North Atlantic climate change.
Knowledge of the circulation patterns since the last glaciation is of great importance by the
prediction of the climate change in the near future.

As the interest of the oil industry is focussing on greater water depth knowledge of

slope instability, including the importance of gas hydrates becomes important. In addition
growing interest in the oil potential of the Arctic makes knowledge of ice berg routes as
evidence by the scours in the sea bottoms become important.

Another important information which can be retrieved from sediment cores are

information on freshwater discharge from ice caps and major rivers which has impact on
the north Atlantic circulation and climate.

The Arctic Ocean: The present reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will have a
major impact on the Arctic community and global economic consequences (shipping,
fisheries and hydrocarbon exploration). Sediment studies are important to relate former
climate change and changes in the Arctic sea ice cover. Furthermore the political issue of
outlining territorial claims between the countries bordering the Arctic Ocean basin will be
based on geological evidence.

Marine geology plays an active role in the research in the above-mentioned subjects. The
activities can be divided into mapping programmes, habitat studies, and the development of
acoustic methods for mapping purposes and climate related studies.

Sea bed sediments and structures at different scales

Thematic mapping for raw materials

Quaternary history of the near shore zone of the North sea and the Baltic Sea

Habitat mapping and morphology

The implementation of new acoustic methods for sea bed mapping and
characterisation

Palaeovegetation and forests

Research in this working group has been focused on problems related to Holocene
terrestrial and limnic environments. End users are mainly the Danish Forest and Nature
Agency and the Danish Environmental Protection Agency as well as the national and
international scientific community. The following items summarize main activities during
2000-2005:

Impact of long-term land-use and climate change on the environment in Denmark
and Greenland.

Environmental history applied to management of forests, open cultural landscapes
and lakes.

Definition of baseline environments before human impact, in terrestrial and limnic
ecosystems.

Quantification of vegetation changes including biodiversity methodological
development for application in cultural landscapes.

Monitoring forest changes and long-term forest dynamics.

Presentation of results for authorities and a wider public audience

This research has to a great extent been linked to various EU projects and in the case of
land-use changes to the national project Agrar2000. Research students have been included
in the group, two have received PhD degrees and two master degree. One project has been
related to third world problems, the DANIDA project in Uganda.

Although the working group suffered strongly from financial cut, the group has been
scientifically efficient as demonstrated by their publication record. However, over the last

two years the group has lost several leading scientists. At the same time new research
students supervised by the group members have been added to the group on shorter-term
employment and together they contributed to the publication record.

The present situation for the working group is precarious, which may have been the cause
of some scientists leaving for other positions. GEUS has played an important role in
developing this area into a strong research discipline engaging both geological and
biological aspects of environmental changes. This research theme is essential for a better
understanding of natural processes and ecosystems. The high-quality research documented
by the scientists over the period 2000-2005 builds on a long Danish tradition back in the
20

century. The interdisciplinary nature of the research area is a scientific strength, but

also makes the discipline vulnerable in periods of financial cuts by falling between several
institutions area of responsibility.

The strategy shift 2003/2004 caused a strong reaction by the international palaeoecological
research community with support for continued research at GEUS within research theme .

6. Evaluation of individual working groups: status and recommendations

Land geology and ice

Observations made during interviews and presentations:

The working group sees itself as interdisciplinary with open structure, great personal
commitment, but with nOFormal leader. `Climate impact, past, present and future'
represents a general research theme for the group.

The mapping programmes have priority at GEUS, and the present map production
meets the long term planning of GEUS.

In addition to the basic geological and glaciological mapping programme, applied
and thematic mapping programmes are in progress. Land use planning for instance,
needs detailed insight in occurrences of raw materials and ground water aquifers.
There is no plan for additional mapping activities when the present mapping activity
is finished.

Much time is spent writing research proposals.

When funding for a project is obtained, the infrastructure (laboratories, databases,
etc.) at GEUS is considered highly professional and efficient.

The working group regards the Geocenter as a means of establishing a higher degree
of co-operation with other geoscientists in Copenhagen. At the moment, the
relatively low number of M.Sc. students within certain areas of geoscience at
Danish universities is a drawback for full exploitation of this potential.

There is concern for future activities within glaciology in Greenland.

Scientific output

The output in peer reviewed scientific publications has varied strongly varying during the
period under evaluation. There is a tendency towards a decreasing number of publications
over the last three years, apparently reflecting the reduction in personnel during the
evaluation period and the movement of GEUS into new buildings. Because of the delay
from research to publication the effect of this development may not yet be fully visible in
the publication record.

In the list below, the first column indicates the year of publication, the second column
number of publications, and the third column the number of citations according to `Web of
science' (values supplied by GEUS). The decline in citations with time is to be expected
because of short international exposure time for the most recent publications:

2000 05 (10)
2001 10

(17)

2002 10 (59)
2003 03 (00)
2004 11 (03)
2005 02 (00)

Several publications focus on issues relating to Quaternary Geology and Palaeoclimate.
Many publications are related to Greenland, reflecting the ongoing research activity of
glaciologists and Quaternary geologists in this country. From a publication point of view
coastal geomorphology has mainly been restricted to activities in Denmark.

Recommendations:

Having legitimate research interests and -activities in both Denmark and Greenland, GEUS
as a scientific institution is in a unique position to investigate marine and terrestrial
geoscientific issues on both sides of the North Atlantic. This is today becoming an even
more advantageous position from a strategic point of view, given the current widespread
interest in the relation between regional and global climatic change in the North Atlantic
area in general, and the mass balance of the Greenlandic Ice Sheet in particular.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

Current mapping activities and documentation techniques should be continued and
developed.

Current research activities in Greenland should be upheld and enforced. This
especially applies to glaciological activities in Greenland.

The working group should maintain and initiate relevant baseline studies.

A research initiative on mapping, dating and monitoring various slope processes
around settlements in Greenland should be considered. The growing awareness of
climate change induced changes in permafrost, snow avalanches, mudflows, etc.,
may in the near future prompt Greenlandic authorities to approach GEUS for
advice on issues relating to local risk/hazard assessments at existing settlements.
The coming International Polar Year (IPY; 2007-2008) may add to the potential
importance of such an initiative.

Research carried out by the working group on the character and distribution of different
sediments in Denmark is important, both from a classic research point of view as well as
when seen from a directly applied perspective. As one example, acquiring knowledge on
the different structural and sedimentological characteristics of tills and glaciofluvial
sediments are important input values for hydraulic models, in order to model fluid
migrations in different types of sediments.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

Current research on structural and sedimentological characteristics of tills and
other sediments should be continued. The research on fracture geometry and
frequency in tills represent such an area where GEUS has the potential to obtain a
leading international research role.

Development of new mapping techniques using ground penetrating radar and other
geophysical methods should be continued.

The working group has an uneven publication profile, with some members of staff having
an excellent record of peer-reviewed international publications, while other member of staff
have been significantly less active in this respect.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

The programme area management should actively encourage researchers to submit
research results for publication in peer-reviewed international journals and to
participate actively in international meetings, to exploit the possibilities for
enhanced scientific co-operation with other geoscientists at Geocenter Copenhagen
and at the University of Aarhus.

Marine Geology

Observations made during interviews and presentations:

The research is carried out in the field of offshore raw materials and applied geology
in climate related fields.

Studies are carried out in the field of dynamic processes of the sea bed in relation
with the morphology and habitat

For stratigraphic correlations expertise on foraminifera is missing.

In contradiction with the research agenda no development of seismic methods or
systems is carried out.

Partnership in EU-projects is possible and required to obtain funding for more
research.

In contradiction with the programme management with project crossing over the
borders of the departments, there are economic boundaries between the departments
because of the external funding targets of each department.

Applied research in the field of submarine hazards like the occurrences of shallow
gas in the top layers is not only restricted to the shelf seas around Denmark but also
applies to deep water work in the North Atlantic and Greenlandic waters.

GEUS is equipped with survey and coring equipment for shelf research.

The number of publications is high. Research is often carried out in an international
framework.

The working group has a strong international network as can be read from the large
number of publications in co-operation with foreign institutes, and the co-operation
at sea on board survey vessels with foreign institutes.

External co-operation in Denmark takes place with the Hydraulic Institute,
Technical Institute and with the Universities in Århus and Copenhagen.

The lack of ship time for marine research is a problem caused by high costs.

Mapping:

The mapping activities of the marine Geology Groups have been split into research in the
North Sea and the Inner Danish Waters. Their main activities comprise:

Raw material administration and EU related activities.

The research on raw materials is carried out per licence area: Bathymetry, seabed geology,
seabed morphology and the observations (seismic and sampling locations) are available.
Registration of the extraction of marine aggregates is done for each extraction area (figures
are presented between 1996 and 2000 are available). Seabed sediment mapping covers the
Inner Danish waters, and the coastal zone of the Danish part of the North Sea (partly the
German part). In co-operation with the other Baltic States a seabed sediment map has been
prepared of the entire Baltic Sea.

Concerning the habitat directive for the Inner Danish waters a habitat map is produced
where sandbanks and stone reefs are indicated. With advanced techniques as side scan
sonar and multibeam pilot studies have been carried out showing a detailed seabed
morphology and bathymetry. Diver observations complete the tools available for habitat
mapping.

Applied research:

Infrastructure projects (bridges)

Raw materials (marine aggregates (sand and gravel), geological setting, exploitation
potential, and environmental assessment)

Windmill parks

Harbours

Beach nourishment

Submarine pipeline and cable route surveys

Rig site surveys

Deep water slope instability

Of applied research for windmill parks, beach nourishment, submarine pipelines and cables
no publications or reports were available for the auditors. This was explained by the group
as a result of the confidentiality of the data reported.

Scientific output:

The output in peer reviewed scientific publications of the working group has varied over the
period under review:

2000 08

(26)

2001 10 (33)
2002 16 (55)
2003 04 (12)
2004 09 (21)
2005 10 (03)

The publications represent a wide range of marine subjects; including seabed dynamics,
morphology, biostratigraphy, (neo)tectonics, ocean currents, water mass exchange, climate
change, environmental issues, and reflect a strong international co-operation as in 2002 as a
result of joint ocean research in the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea. Marine research in
the North Sea was mainly restricted to the coastal zone (morphology, seabed sediments and
glaciotectonics. A strong position in biostratigraphic issues is reflected by the large number
of publications in this field. The methods and equipments used belong to the standard
devices, and latest developments (multibeam)

Recommendations:

The mapping programme of the North Sea is restricted to seabed sediments at a large scale.
The classification is very general compared to maps available from the Baltic Sea.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

A North Sea mapping programme is initiated at a smaller scale (1:250.000 or
smaller), including the Holocene and Pleistocene geology.

The working group should maintain and initiate relevant baseline studies.

Ship time is limited because of the high daily rate of survey vessels. Much of the research is
carried out in co-operation with ship owning partners, and for that reason the research
options are not always entirely controlled by GEUS. This results in research in areas of
common interest.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

Funding is made available for ship time in order to start a reconnaissance mapping
programme and other marine geological work and studies Presumably the
management at GEUS would have to make a joint effort with other Danish research
institutions and universities for improving availability of ship time at a national
scale.

More emphasis is put into marine geological investigations in Greenlandic and
Artic waters focusing on the effect and impact of the climate change, e.g. melt water
discharge, sea ice reduction on Atlantic circulation and global climate.

The marine biostratigraphic support is strongly reduced by retirements during the
evaluation period.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

Young scientists are attracted to continue the biostratigraphic support. This
knowledge is essential for the mapping programmes.

Most of the marine surveying and sampling equipment is standard, including the
multibeam.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

GEUS join international research studies in the field of seabed classification
techniques and methods.

Palaeovegetation and forests

Observations during interviews and presentations

The working group regards dynamics of Holocene landscape development and
environment in Denmark to be the main focus for current research.

The working group already has good contacts with other groups at the Geocenter,
Copenhagen, but would like to expand that collaboration and also extend
collaboration to other institutions outside GEUS.

It is a desire to include more young scientists in the group.

Members of the group have good time for research and spend little time on
administration except for EU applications.

This group feels that palaeoecology faces a great challenge for local/regional as well
as continental scales. They regard that their scientific results are at the cutting edge
of this research area.

The financial and staff cut-backs has been very hard for this group and this has led
to a collective concern about the future. However, there is optimism about their
scientific capacity for further development of the area.

Research on environmental history is today characterised by a paradigm shift, a
development from a descriptive to a quantitative discipline, applying modelling to describe
processes which is of relevance for understanding future changes of ecosystems and
landscapes. The scientists at GEUS contributing to this theme have played a leading role in
this development which is reflected in the international collaboration. The research over the
evaluation period is of high international

standard and of great importance for Danish-

Greenlandic authorities in their work related to environment protection and management as
well as forestry and agriculture. The working group has developed the discipline
methodologically and has an impressive publication record generated as a result of team
work between permanent staff, research students and guest scientists.

The original composition of the research group combining expertise on terrestrial and
limnic biota, palynology, diatoms, and macrofossils has provided a unique base for
understanding natural and human impacts on environment and climate in the terrestrial
realm. The group contributed considerably to international, particularly Nordic and
European, research programmes and have been successful in obtaining external funding for
its research while contact to other national governmental institutions such as the Danish
Forest and Nature Agency appear to be less strongly developed. This group, even though
being reduced in strength during the evaluation period, still have the potential of being an
excellent platform for continued, and expanded, research of high international standard
within the field of Holocene environmental history and its applications in society.

Scientific output

The output in peer reviewed scientific publications, related to terrestrial and limnic
environments, has been very good over the whole period. The citation record (numbers in
brackets) is also very good, although as expected decreasing for the most recent
publications. The high number of citations for the years 2000-2002 is related to the time
when the group included several top scientists. As there is typically a delay from research to
publication the effect of the cut may only be evident in the publication record for 2006 and
onwards. All members of the working group have contributed to the high productivity and
by international standard the output for individual members of the group is good and
publications are in journals of good international standing. Many of the publications are
results of international, particularly EU collaboration, and it is worth noting that members
of the working group are often the leading scientists in these joint projects with many first
author publications. A measure for international recognition is also a number of review
papers in international journals. In addition to international publications, results are also
published in report series and national media.

2000 16

(207)

2001 14

(60)

2002 12

(44)

2003 12

(42)

2004 11

(16)

2005 22

(04)

Recommendations:

The working group have been reduced in size during the period under review, but still
represents a unique resource for Denmark and Greenland and has the potential for
becoming leading internationally if new resources are allocated to the area.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

GEUS should with urgency reconstruct the group so that manpower is kept above
the critical level.

Research within this group should include terrestrial as well as limnic/brackish
palaeoecology.

GEUS should consider integrating also marine palaeoecology into this theme.

The working group should respond to requirements of society for knowledge-based
decision making on issues related to long-term environmental changes in Denmark-
Greenland and besides this document cultural and natural heritage.

The working group should maintain and initiate relevant baseline studies.

Nordic and European research integration should be further developed and
supported.

The unique competence of the working group for monitoring forest dynamics should
be maintained and used to support the Draved field station.

7. General consequences of the strategic aims of GEUS: some general
recommendations

While the above recommendations focus on the individual working groups within
programme area 5, the evaluation panel has chosen also to address some issues of more
general relevance for the programme area when seen from an overall GEUS strategic point
of view. From interviews with staff from different working groups under Programme 5 the
evaluation panel appreciates that the overall GEUS strategy is generally well established,
and this represents an inherent strength of high importance for GEUS. A number of
researchers, however, also expressed concern over unclear long-term priorities and visions

and that this uncertainty might negatively affect creativity and enthusiasm at GEUS.

The general comments and recommendations given below have been viewed in the context
of the strategic statements as specified previously in the present report. The evaluation
panel has chosen first to identify the items, which are considered to be necessary for
achieving the goals defined in the strategy of GEUS, followed by an evaluation of the status
of each of these elements. The evaluation panel emphasises that the sequence of the items
as given below should not be read as a list of priority.

Safeguarding high quality research skills at GEUS

In order to achieve the strategic goals for research (Appendix 3), GEUS must be
safeguarding its high quality research skills and encourage its scientists to play an actively
role in setting the research agenda at the international level by engagement in relevant
scientific fora. GEUS places emphasis on maintaining personnel with excellent fieldwork
skills. This is relevant for Denmark in general, but perhaps particularly relevant in the light
of the high interest in climatic issues related to Greenland and the Greenlandic Ice Sheet
behaviour, as well as the oil-gas exploration potential in the Greenland region. In addition,
having a competent staff with excellent fieldwork skills also represents a generic strength of
GEUS with respect to acquisition of high-quality geoscience data.

On this background the Evaluation Panel recommends that

GEUS should clearly define research issues that the programme area "Nature and
Environment" is supposed to address.

GEUS should make resources available to support and encourage staff to
participate actively on the international scientific scene.

The scientific staff of GEUS should in particular exploit the possibilities for
scientific co-operation within Geocenter Copenhagen and with the University of
Aarhus.

GEUS should define a publication strategy for all members of staff in order to
maintain and enhance their individual research profile. Long unpublished texts or
extensive reports should not be prepared unless specifically requested by project
sponsors.

GEUS should allow its researchers to interact over departmental boundaries to
fully exploit its potential of generating new research ideas.

Dynamic modelling of subsoil as a response of processes of groundwater table
lowering, landscape degradation and overall environmental change should be
introduced at GEUS.

GEUS should consider developing new baseline studies relevant to conservation
issues, landscape use, agriculture, seabed use, and for the documentation of climate
change in general. This also in order to meet new EU-directives.

In a rapid changing scientific environment and where new needs from society may arise
with short notice it is important that GEUS has the capacity to anticipate new
developments.

On this background the Evaluation Panel recommends that

GEUS should ensure that relevant geoscientific knowledge is at hand in Denmark
when need arises with short notice, by maintaining its present policy of securing
research areas without sufficient funding by investing surplus from other areas of
research.

One person within the programme area is designated to assist the head of
department in the overall knowledge management regarding future demands from
the European Union, industry and society.

This person should also assist the head of department as scientific coordinator by
focusing research activities within the department, but should have nOFormal
hierarchal function.

During the evaluation process it could barely escape the evaluation panel that programme
area 5 at the moment has a highly male-dominated profile.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

The potential weaknesses of the present gender imbalance should be taken into
consideration when future recruitment strategy is planned for the working groups
under programme area 5.

GEUS activities in the third world

Researchers within the programme area are involved in several projects providing
assistance to third world countries.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

GEUS should find funding for further third world activities, particularly related to
consequences of natural hazards, sea level changes and other environmental
changes.

Laboratory and administration facilities at GEUS

GEUS has several well-equipped laboratories at its disposal, which must be seen as pre-
requisites for much high-quality research. In addition, the laboratories may be important in

future collaboration with other research organisations, and in attracting high-quality
scientists. The Draved field station is of national and international importance as part of a
European network.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

Focus on good laboratory facilities should be maintained.

Adequate resources should be ensured for the Draved field station in southern
Jutland to maintain long-term monitoring of forest dynamics.

Handling of EU applications should be further supported in order to unload the
scientists.

GIS, databases and other archives at GEUS

To advise Danish, Greenlandic and other authorities in geoscience matters, the evaluation
panel would like to stress the importance of an efficient Geographical Information System
(GIS), its associated databases and archives of geoscience data presently found at GEUS.
Of particular importance for Programme area 5 and research related to baseline studies for
natural and human impact on environment and climate are the palaeoecological databases
organized within the European framework. In general, this represents a robust foundation
for geological documentation of national as well as global value. Simultaneously, the
database provides a background on which high quality applied research programmes can be
developed and maintained.

The Evaluation Panel recommends that

High priority is maintained on the maintenance of the present GIS-system at GEUS
with associated databases and other types of archives.

GEUS should take long-term responsibility for maintaining Danish geoscientific
data and make the data available for the European and international scientific
community.

GEUS should promote more effectively its role in society as the national geoscience
centre for databases and archives related to environmental change across short-
and long time ranges.

8. Conclusions

GEUS has a long tradition of research and occupies a prominent position in the Danish
geoscience community. GEUS aims at strengthening its research capabilities to become
international leading in selected research disciplines.

Having a strong research profile is not by necessity a matter for an advisory/consultancy
institution like GEUS with numerous mandatory, strategic and applied research tasks to
fulfil obligations towards governmental authorities. In fact, several comparable institutions
in Europe have given lower priority to research, compared to the present situation at GEUS.
The evaluation panel believes that the strategy formulated by GEUS will not only
strengthen the research efforts, but also strongly benefit consultancy tasks and thus the
Danish and Greenlandic societies in general. This will enable GEUS to be a heavy scientific
operator on the international scene also in the future.

The programme area 5 "Nature and Environment" has contributed significantly to the status
of GEUS being recognised as an important research institution. With the increasing public
concern over geoscientific climate change effects, and other environmental issues, research
within programme area 5 is highly relevant to a modern society.

Considered in the context of GEUS's overall mission and tasks as stated previously in
chapter 4, programme area 5 at GEUS is presently fulfilling its obligations as to strategic
research and ability to advice on applied matters. Given the strength of the researchers, the
unique data available at GEUS for baseline studies, and the responsibility for geological
mapping and monitoring environmental changes in regions of high relevance to global
climatic change, the research groups within programme area 5 have a clear potential to take
an internationally leading role in different environmental studies. In our view this potential
and the present positive working morale within programme area 5 should be fully
acknowledged by GEUS.

In the present review we have attempted to identify areas of particular strength within
programme area 5. We have also identified certain issues that might restrict a dynamic
development of the programme area. There is sometimes a need to improve coordination
between various research groups/projects within the programme area. We recommend
GEUS to consider the various specific recommendations stated previously in this report
(chapter 6 and 7), and from this to develop strategies to enforce, revive and strengthen the
programme area.

As examples of general issues where future changes might be considered within programme
area 5 the evaluation panel would have noted that:

Acquisition of projects consumes much time for staff.

International peer reviewed publication activity is complicated by the fact that
publication of data collected for third parties often are allowed only after several
years of confidentiality.

As examples of general issues where programme area 5 has a particularly strong standing
the evaluation panel would have noted that:

The scientific staff at programme area 5 generally feels that they have influence on
developments, which contributes to the present positive working morale.

Given the strength of the researchers and the unique data available at GEUS,
programme area 5 have a clear potential to take an internationally leading role in
different environmental studies.

Based on this, the evaluation panel recommends that formulating an overall research
objective for the programme area might be considered:

Taking all scientific activities within programme area 5 into account, a common
research objective might be the linking of terrestrial (incl. glaciological) and
marine processes and environments, past and present, in and around Denmark and
Greenland. This would represent an example of how to perform useful, modern
baseline studies. In addition, this would augment GEUS's role as a leading
geoscientific research institution within the North Atlantic context.

An initiative like the above should clearly be co-ordinated within the bigger Geocenter
Copenhagen, and would add to both the internal strength of the programme area and the
overall capability of GEUS to advice on issues relating to the landscape effect of ongoing
and future climatic changes.

Finally, the evaluation would like to appreciate that

GEUS over the evaluation period has attempted to secure the existence of relevant
geoscientific knowledge, by investing surplus from some research areas to other
areas without sufficient funding for the time being. It is important that this modus
operandi should be continued by GEUS to ensure that relevant knowledge always is
at hand in Denmark when need arises with short notice.

Appendix 1

The review panel

Professor Ole Humlum , Oslo University. Before taking up his present position at the
Institute of Geoscience in Oslo in 2003, he served as professor of Physical Geography at
the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) 1999-2003. From 1985 to 1999 he was appointed
as Associate Professor at the Institute of Geography, University of Copenhagen. For tree
years (1983-1985) he was Scientific Director for the Arctic Research Station in Greenland.
He has been a scientific guest at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland, and at the
Museum of Natural History in Tórshavn, Faroe Islands, in 1997 and 1998, respectively.
Since 1998 he has been one of two co-chairs for the international working group
`Periglacial processes, landforms and climate' under the International Permafrost
Association (IPA). Main research focus are glacial- and periglacial geomorphology, with
emphasis on climatic controls on glacial, periglacial and permafrost processes in cold-
climate, high-relief areas, past and present. In addition, he is also active within mapping,
monitoring and numerical modelling of natural cold-climate hazards.

Professor emeritus Björn E. Berglund , Lund Universit y. During the period 1971-2000 he
served as professor in Quaternary Geology and Head of the Department of Quaternary
Geology, since 2000 he is active as independent scientist at the Department of
Geology/Quaternary Geology, GeoBiosphere Centre, also at Lund University. He has acted
as member of several research committees at the Swedish Natural Science Research
Council and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and as coordinator for European
projects and conferences on Holocene palaeoecology. His main research interests are
Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation history in relation to climate and human impact, in
recent years with focus on long-term cultural landscape dynamics. Another research field is
the Baltic Sea history with focus on Littorina Sea transgressions in relation to climate
changes. One application of this basic research has been nature management and
conservancy.

Dr Cees Laban, of TNO Built Environment and Geosciences - Geological Survey of The
Netherlands- , was head of the Marine Geology department between 1990 and 2004, and
head of the Business Unit Geology (land and marine) till September 2005. At the moment
he is director of the starting TNO company "Marine sampling services", and responsible
for marine project development of the institute. He has a longstanding experience in marine
research, and has been involved in a large number of national and international projects
and programmes in the North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the
Antarctic, Svalbard, Persian Gulf, and Western Greenland. His thesis was on the
Pleistocene glaciations in the Dutch sector of the North Sea - a synthesis of sedimentary
and seismic data-.

Professor Else Marie Friis , Naturhistoriska Riksmuseet, Stockholm. Since 1987 professor
in palaeobotany and head of the Department of Palaeobotany at the Swedish Museum of
Natural History and presently associate director of science for the Science Division at the
museum. Has served on the board of directors for the Geological Survey of Denmark, for
the Geological Surveys of Denmark and Greenland, as member of several Danish and
foreign research committees such as the Danish Natural Science Research Council
(including position as chairman for the committees Biodiversity and Man, Cultural
Landscape, and Polar research), and on the board of directors for the Danish Research
Foundation. Main research interest is the early evolution and diversification of flowering
plants and major vegetational changes through the latest Mesozoic and early Cainozoic.

Appendix 2

General terms of reference for the evaluation of programme
area 5 at GEUS, Nature and Environment:

The mandate and objectives of the committee was defined in a letter of 2. November 2005,
stating that the panel shall undertake an evaluation of research activities within the
programme area `Nature and Environment', constituted by

Research and development activities within the areas of palaeoclimate,
palaeoecology, marine geology and glaciology, with respect to the Quaternary in
Denmark and Greenland

Research and development activities with respect to the environment and climate
change in Denmark and the northern hemisphere; and geological mapping in
Denmark

Within programme area 5 the evaluation panel was asked tOFocus on:

Identifying areas of high quality research

Identifying areas where the research of GEUS should be strengthened in order to
meet GEUS vision and strategies.

Identifying areas which should be strengthened in order for GEUS to expand
GEUS' ability to provide assistance to third world countries with the broad area of
nature and environment

Providing comments and proposals as to strategic changes, amendments, and
improvements to GEUS' work within the programme area, in order to improve
GEUS' ability tOFulfil its main mission within the programme area put into
perspective of the surveys statutes and general mission

The panel was asked to base its evaluation on:

Publications from programme area 5 spanning the time interval 2000-2005

One main visit at GEUS in Copenhagen, interviewing scientists, and visiting
laboratories and work-facilities at the GEUS premises.

A supplementary second visit aimed alsOFor presenting the initial findings of the
panel.

Appendix 3

Vision for GEUS: Geology for a changing society

GEUS is the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland and by pursuing its vision it
contributes to the development of society

GEUS is to be an internationally recognised and in selected areas a leading research and
consultancy institution in the fields of environmental geology, water resources, energy and
mineral resources.

GEUS is to be the primary consultancy institution for Danish and Greenland authorities in
all questions concerning important geological conditions.

GEUS is to be the national geological data centre, on the forefront internationally, which
presents reliable and independent information to benefit the public and industry.

GEUS is to be an attractive workplace where ethical standards and social values are the
mainstay of the business culture.

GEUS is to play an active part in developing the periphery fields of geology.

GEUS is to set the trend by developing partnerships with other research institutions,
industry and international organisations.

GEUS, including its associates in Geocenter Copenhagen, is to be an internationally
distinguished research centre attracting visiting researchers and PhD students.

GEUS is to be a visible player in international development assistance concerning the
exploitation and protection of natural geological resources.

GEUS is to be visible in society and present geological information to the public in an
accessible way.

Appendix 6

Programme area 5, Nature and environment: Publications
2000-2005

GEUS researchers have during 2000-2005 published the scientific results in 96 different
journals and books. The list below shows that 32 journals have printed articles between 2 and
13 times, while 64 journals have published 1 article.
The researchers have the permission to choose the journal they want and as they find
convenient for the subject of the paper. The different research areas are demonstrated by the
diverse characters and types of the journals.

List of journals where the papers are published and the numbers of papers.

Journal

Number of papers

The Holocene

Marine Geology

Boreas 9
J. of Quaternary Science

Bull. Geol. Soc. Denmark

Quaternary Science Reviews

J. of Paleolimnology

Freshwater Biology

Quaternary Research

Quaternary International

Palaegeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

Geoscience 4
Geology 3
Forest ecology and Management

J. of Ecology

Geologie en Mijnbouw

Period Biology

Global and Planetary Change

Canadian J. of Forest Research

J. of Marine Systems

Review of Paleobotany and Palynology

Annals of Glaciology

Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research

Archive für Hydrobiologie

Limnology and Oceanography

J. of Glaciology

Geografiska Annaler

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Mitteilungen Pollichia

Marine Micropaleontology

Geol. Soc. London Sp. Publ.

Marine and Petroleum Geology

64 different journals (incl. Nature)

Appendix 8

First panel meeting on evaluation of research activities on

Nature and Environment.

Copenhagen, November 23-24, 2005

Timetable (1. revision)

Date Time

Activity

Responsible Place

Tuesday
22/11

Arrival to Copenhagen

Comfort Hotel
Østerport A/S
Adress: Oslo
Plads 5
2100
København Ø
Phone: +45
3311 2266
www.choicehot
els.dk

Wednesda
y 23/11

08.45

Arrival and registration Klaus Pedersen

GEUS
reception

09.00

Welcome to GEUS

Vice director
Johnny Fredericia

OWC
Conference
room, GEUS

09.15

Introduction to the
research areas within
Nature and
Environment

Head of
department Peter
Gravesen

OWC
Conference
room, GEUS

09.30

Brief presentation (25
min.) by senior
researchers, followed
by Q & A

Knud Erik Klint
Jørgen Bo Jensen
Antoon Kuijpers
Richard Bradshaw

OWC
Conference
room, GEUS

12.00 Lunch

break

Panel

Cantine,
Geocenter

13.00 Discussions

with

various relevant
researchers

Head of
department Peter
Gravesen

GEUS

16.00

Planning of evaluation
End of session

Panel OWC

Conference
room, GEUS

Appendix 9

Second panel meeting on evaluation of research activities on

Environment and Nature.

Copenhagen, February 23-24, 2006

Timetable

Date Time

Activity

Responsible Place

Wednesda
y 22/2

Arrival to Copenhagen Hanne Hende

Comfort Hotel
Østerport A/S
Adress: Oslo
Plads 5
2100
København Ø
Phone: +45 70
12 46 46
www.choicehot
els.dk

Thursday
23/2

08.45 Arrival

GEUS
reception

09.00

Presentation of the
evaluation to
programme area 5

Professor Ole
Humlum & the
panel

OWC
Conference
room, GEUS

12.00

Lunch break

Panel, Peter
Gravesen &
Johnny Fredericia

Cantine,
Geocenter

13.00 - ? Writing of the report

Panel

OWC
Conference
room, GEUS

19.00

Dinner at a restaurant
in Copenhagen

Panel, Peter
Gravesen &
Johnny Fredericia

To be decided

Friday
24/2

09.00

Writing of the report

Panel

OWC
Conference
room, GEUS

12.00

Lunch

break Panel Cantine,

Geocenter

13.00 - ? Writing of the report

Printing of the report

Panel OWC

Conference
room, GEUS

End of meeting

FACT SHEETS

Scientific evaluation of programme area Nature and Environment

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