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Climate changes make up one the major challenges for humankind in the future. Recent climate modelling predicts that the average global temperature will rise more then previously thought. Since the end of the 19th century the average temperature on earth has already risen by 0.3°C to 0.6°C . A possible link between this temperature rise and an anthropogenically-induced increase of greenhouse gases has been the topic of intensive and worldwide discussions. However, until few years ago it was doubtful whether global warming was (partly) caused by human use of fossil energy resources. Indeed, it could also be a purely natural phenomenon, since climate has changed through the Earth's history, also without interference of mankind. Progress has meanwhile been made, and recent research enables us to state with almost 100% certainty that mankind has started to play a role in changing the global climate. By the emission of greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide and methane, man is contributing actively to global warming. Thus, the earth may warm u p more in one hundred years than it has done since the beginning of the present, "INTERGLACIAL" climate regime, which started c.10,000 years ago. One the consequences is that sea level is expected to rise several decimetres, maybe even more than 50 cm. Moreover, it is expected that extreme weather conditions will occur more frequently. This involves floods, storms and tropical cyclones which will be more severe and thus cause even more damage than they do already today. Also, climatic zones will tend to move pole wards. Even if this shift will not lead to spectacular changes like desertification or flooding everywhere, yet its influence on natural systems will probably be considerable.
Many existing natural
ecosystems will no longer be able to adjust
quickly enough to changing circumstances and will thus be thoroughly disturbed or may even disappear. An example may be the death of tropical coral reefs by 'coral bleaching' as we see it today. Data collected this year (2000) demonstrate that all over the world already 25% of the reef systems has died within the last few years. One thing further to consider is the chance that the natural environment (the habitat) of many plant and animal species will move faster than those species can adapt to, so that their chances of survival are seriously threatened. Consequently, there is a serious risk that climate change will lead to a
reduction of biological diversity
.
The department's climate change researchThe research activities of the department dealing with climatical changes, i.e. climate history and development , are grouped in three specific focus areas
The purpose is to contribute to public and scientific understanding of the importance of climate change and its environmental impact, in particular with regard to past natural changes . This may help to make a better assessment of present changes with the purpose to improve predictions of future development of our climate and environment. In order to understand the impacts of natural and anthropogenic changes on climate systems, it is essential to have knowledge of environmental conditions and natural variability prior to human settlement, and if possible, of the mechanism forcing these changes. Geological records are often the only tool to reconstruct past environmental conditions and to establish a long-term record of natural variability . Research in the department has concentrated on understanding how (North Atlantic) ocean circulation and climate change are linked, and how these affect the distribution of biological communities. Moreover, studies are made how the sedimentary record can be used to distinguish between natural and human-induced environmental change on local and regional scales. Also the study of natural hazards, such as submarine slides, form part of the department's research activities Current research includes:
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