MARINE GEOLOGY AND GLACIOLOGY
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Dynamic European Climate-VEGetation Impacts and Interactions |
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Contact: T. Giesecke tg@geus.dk |
Dynamic European Climate-VEGetation Impacts and Interactions: Understanding and predicting regional transient terrestrial vegetation responses to climate change are topical research challenges that require development of both models and datasets. Vegetation patterns have altered considerably in response to past climate and land-use changes and feedbacks from these vegetation changes to the climate system through altered albedo, evapotranspiration, CO2 and CH4 concentrations and other processes are proving to be of great significance (IPCC 2001, Ruddiman 2003). Climate and vegetation models are powerful tools for analysing future trends and conditions but these models are usefully developed and validated by comparison with data sets describing past and present conditions (Harrison & Prentice 2003). As models develop from global to regional scales and from equilibrium to dynamic states, the demands made on data also develop.
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DECVEG is an ESF EUROCORES project comprising partners from 8 institutions in 7 European countries. It brings together researchers with an expertise in the collection and handling of palaeovegetation data and modellers experienced in simulating species distributions, vegetation dynamics and past global climates.
Aims:
The aim of DECVEG is to use and improve both dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) and palaeovegetation data in order to study climate-vegetation interactions in Europe. We will use DVMs to explore past, present and future European scenarios and where necessary modify them to improve their predictive value. General circulation model (GCM) output, inverse modelling of fossil pollen data, transfer functions and the analogue approach (Guiot et al. 1989) will be used to generate independent sets of palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Performance of three DVMs will be compared in both inverse and normal mode. DVMs in normal mode will be driven by GCM palaeoclimatic data, and their output compared with palaeoecological datasets. This parallel use of methods, data and models will permit assessment of the robustness of the palaeoclimate and palaeovegetation reconstructions and help identify where further model development is needed. A new series of coupled GCM-DVM runs will be made at 11000, 6000 and 1000 calendar years BP. A central aim is to maximise the value of European palaeovegetation datasets in palaeoclimate research. We will increase the temporal control, spatial resolution and availability to researchers of European palaeovegetation datasets in the form of pollen and macrofossils. These datasets will then be used to evaluate both DVM performance and GCM output and identify how the models could be improved to increase their predictive value. Improved palaeovegetation data will also help assess the potential importance of human impact on past climates (Ruddiman 2003). DECVEG aims to improve our understanding of past climate change and its impact on vegetation. Sophisticated data-model comparisons will aid in the development of DVM's to make them into more effective tools for exploring the transient impacts of present and future climate change.
For more information see:
Edited by:
Niels E. Poulsen, GEUS -
nep@geus.dk
